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Forex Flash: AUD/USD retest of 1.0500 hinges on RBA – Westpac

According to the Westpac Strategy Team, “The AUD/USD tested the mid-1.0300s and could find itself in a similar situation again Wednesday/Thursday if Australian retail and/or jobs data disappoint. However, a likely cautiously upbeat RBA (Tuesday & Friday) should see the Aussie supported on dips and probably re-test 1.0500.”

In regards to the AU outright, key resistance levels have broken, suggesting the bearish price action can continue. From a medium term point of view, the RBA is expected to confirm that their easing bias remains intact. “We would therefore be looking to take profit on short positions when 3yr yields reach 3.05%.” the team adds.

Finally the AU curve with the 3-10yr futures curve continuing to range trade between 56-63bp, and as such we prefer to focus on front-end bear steepeners.

French FinMin: Euro too strong

French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said in an interview for France 2 television on Sunday that in his opinion the euro was perhaps too strong, boosted last week by signs of improvements in Eurozone’s economic situation as well as the latest decent US NFP report.
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Forex Flash: NZ prime minister sees NZD/USD as overvalued – UBS

Overnight, New Zealand's Prime Minister Key said the NZD/USD is overvalued, however that the AUD/NZD is still within its normal band. According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “We expect this cross to continue to trade heavy over the coming months as the relative stance of monetary policy shifts in the kiwi's favor.”
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