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Forex Flash: RBA steadies rates though future action eyed – NAB

The RBA today kept the cash rate steady at 3.00%, as expected by the market, having cut rates in December. “For us, they have retained an open mind on whether the non-mining sector will fill the void left as resources investment peaks and they also see lower inflation as giving them more scope to ease should that be necessary. We think there will be more easing in the months ahead.” writes the NAB Analyst Team.

Will it be at the March RBA Board meeting? There’s a large data suite on the local economy to be released between then and now, including key reports in the lead up to Q4 GDP that comes a day after the March Board meeting. For example, the December quarter capital expenditure survey (February 28) will update not only the outlook for this financial year but the first glimpse at 2013-14.

According to the team, “In the near term, there’s key numbers in the next two days, retail sales and employment, both market sensitive and soft we expect. We retain a cautious outlook and so the data trend will be to disappoint in the main. March is a “live” date but the timing of the next rate cut will be very data dependent. The NAB forecast calls for three more easing this year.”

Forex: EUR/USD continues its correction higher

The single currency is accelerating its bounce of session lows around 1.3480, now hovering over the area around 1.3545/50 after mixed data out of the euro zone. Positive services PMI prints have contrasted.....
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Forex Flash: Reasons for optimism in Iberia – UB

German Chancellor Angela Merkel did her very best to express support for her beleaguered Spanish counterpart on Monday in Berlin. Although her fiscal prognosis for Spain may be open to question, she did state that 'Spain's exports are posting their best performance for 30 years'. According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS; “Debatable in practice, basic theory in FX stipulates that improving exports helps the trade balance, and the consequent balance of payments improvements should also help the currency.”
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