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Forex Flash: What lies ahead of EUR/USD? – Commerzbank, BTMU and UBS

The shared currency has managed to put the ECB meeting in the rear window and is currently posting fresh highs in the proximities of 1.3420, buoyed by the likeliness of an agreement from the European Council on the 2014-2020 Budget.

Recalling the last break above the key area of 1.3485/1.3562, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank commented, “We suspect that this was a false break higher, however key support remains the 1.3125 6 month uptrend and a close below here is required to negate the upmove completely.”

In addition, Derek Halpenny, researcher at BTMU, explains “We may finally get an EU budget deal later today with rumours of a deal based on the first real-term budget cut in EU history. That may help stabilise the single currency which is being undermined in part by some renewed liquidation of yen short positions”.

The bullish outlook on the cross remains intact, according to Strategists G.Yu and G.Berry at the Swiss UBS, arguing, “The strong support is at 1.3354. While this holds, the risk is for resumption of strength. Resistance is at 1.3578 ahead of 1.3711”.

Forex Flash: Draghi tried to talk down the Euro – Nomura

Nomura economist Nick Matthews notes that on an eventful day of central bank action, he felt that ECB President was actively trying to talk down the Euro.
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Forex Flash: Draghi highlights market fragility and mitigated credit – Deutsche Bank

According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “Draghi’s overall message at the post-ECB press conference seemed to be that monetary policy would remain accommodative.” Like last month, Draghi talked about the remaining market fragility and reiterated that credit is yet to flow to the real economy.
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